Tom O’Keefe

On May 14 Hitwise reported that Google currently owns 68% (April) of all US searches, up 4% from April 2007 and significantly better than Yahoo (20%) and Microsoft (6%). Some call this Googlopoly but then again we do have a choice when it comes to search. In addition to the top three we do have social search engines like Digg, del.icio.us, Mahalo and StumbleUpon, meta search engines like Clusty & Vivisimo along with some open search and visual search engines. Except for Mahalo, social search is absolutely worthless traffic for the website owners. Most visitors (especially those from StumbleUpon) are clickaholics who barely spend more than a few seconds on your site.

Meta search engines combine the results of the majors – they are actually very good but they rely on the majors for indexing and they don’t serve any significant amount of traffic to websites. Google indirectly controls meta results since if they for whatever reason (and they won’t tell you) decide to ban your website then you’ll now be out of traffic from two search engines.

As I mentioned previously there is a need for niche search engines that combine quality traffic with a focused and targeted market. Niche specific blogs currently provide some of the most valuable traffic for website owners. These are obviously not search engines but when a popular blog in your industry recommends your web application then this traffic (even if less in quantity) is of greater quality and benefit to you then thousands of visits from StumbleUpon. It’s always nice to see a few thousand daily visitors from StumbleUpon but when it comes down to it 99% of those visitors are worthless.

Ning creates niche social networks centered on the interest rather than the individual. Over time social networks focusing on the interest will likely provide website owners with the highest quality of visitors for the best possible price. Sure, you can use Google Adwords to receive quality targeted website traffic – you just need a few thousand dollars a day to get them. Except for major corporations, not many of the new Web 2.0 applications can afford this traffic and that’s ashame. Ashame because I’m willing to bet that there is more creativity coming out of the Web 2.0 world than out of the cubicles.

Right now Google controls almost 70% of search. With the drama between Yahoo and Microsoft still in play that 70% will likely increase in 2009. When that number increases the amount of search traffic for most website owners will likely decrease. Decrease since you have fewer alternatives, other than Google, to receive search traffic. If you’re not on the first page of Google then don’t expect any significant traffic.

Previously you could’ve been on page one for Yahoo, Microsoft, and Google and still receive a good amount of traffic from all three – Google of course being #1. However, now the other two are becoming even less significant and Googlopoly is becoming more evident. SEO Experts will tell you that they can guarantee you a page one listing but they really can’t. They’ll probably link to your website from a bunch of the spam sites that they own but ultimately if people weren’t recommending you before search engine optimization then they’re not going to do it after! SEO is after all about recommendations and links – something an SEO expert can’t force upon trusted resources.

With that SEO is becoming more an more ineffective. Marketing firms are becoming overnight experts in SEO which could hurt them in the end. SEO has become the buzz word for traditional marketing firms and most of them don’t fully understand it. They do understand that they can charge a bunch of money for it. However, huge paydays for SEO work will soon start to decline due to fierce competition and the inability to guarantee results. Traditional marketing firms should be cautious offering search services if they don’t fully understand how search works. You can’t provide any sort of guarantee with search and if you piss off the Googlopoly then they’ll ban the site and the client will ban you.

Marketing firms should look at what’s next. Niche search engines, blogs and social networks will be where most of our traffic comes from. Interactive marketing design, viral videos/flash, social feedback and website development will not only provide your client with targeted traffic but also create street credit and online respect for them. Search can’t do this!